{"id":6025,"date":"2025-07-02T11:07:09","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T03:07:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?p=6025"},"modified":"2025-07-02T12:31:37","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T04:31:37","slug":"%e5%be%ae%e4%bf%a1%e6%9c%8b%e5%8f%8b%e5%9c%88%e6%b4%bb%e8%b7%83%e5%ba%a6-vs-%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e6%99%af%e6%b0%94%e5%ba%a6%ef%bc%8c%e5%bc%ba%e7%9b%b8%e5%85%b3%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?p=6025","title":{"rendered":"\u5fae\u4fe1\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6 vs. \u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f3a\u76f8\u5173\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u4e3a\u4f55\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u5173\uff1f<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e0e\u60c5\u7eea\u8868\u8fbe<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u5fc3\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u65c5\u6e38\u3001\u7f8e\u98df\u3001\u8d2d\u7269\u7b49\u6d88\u8d39\u884c\u4e3a\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6652\u7167\u5206\u4eab\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u884c\u671f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u66f4\u8c28\u614e\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u5916\u51fa\u4e0e\u9ad8\u6d88\u8d39\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u5185\u5bb9\u53ef\u80fd\u8d8b\u4e8e\u51cf\u5c11\u6216\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u8d1f\u9762\u60c5\u7eea\u8868\u8fbe\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5c31\u4e1a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0e\u793e\u4ea4\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u804c\u4e1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u6536\u5165\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u79ef\u6781\u5c55\u793a\u751f\u6d3b\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u5931\u4e1a\u6216\u6536\u5165\u4e0d\u7a33\u4eba\u7fa4\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u793e\u4ea4\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u5c55\u793a\u6b32\u671b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4f01\u4e1a\u5ba3\u4f20\u4e0e\u8425\u9500\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u666f\u6c14\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u54c1\u724c\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6295\u653e\u5e7f\u544a\u3001KOL\u8425\u9500\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4f1a\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u666f\u6c14\u65f6\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u524a\u51cf\u5e7f\u544a\u9884\u7b97\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u5185\u5bb9\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Social-media-activity-level-is-high-so-is-the-economic-prosperity-level-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6030\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Social-media-activity-level-is-high-so-is-the-economic-prosperity-level-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Social-media-activity-level-is-high-so-is-the-economic-prosperity-level-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Social-media-activity-level-is-high-so-is-the-economic-prosperity-level-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Social-media-activity-level-is-high-so-is-the-economic-prosperity-level.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Social media activity level is high, so is the economic prosperity level?<br>Created by <a href=\"https:\/\/labs.google\/fx\/tools\/image-fx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ImageFX<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e8c\u3001\u6570\u636e\u89d2\u5ea6\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5efa\u7acb\u201c\u5f3a\u76f8\u5173\u201d\uff1f<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u53ef\u91cf\u5316\u6307\u6807<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u53d1\u5e16\u9891\u7387\u3001\u4eba\u5747\u53d1\u5e16\u6570\u91cf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u70b9\u8d5e\/\u8bc4\u8bba\u6570\u91cf\u3001\u4e92\u52a8\u6bd4\u7387<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5546\u4e1a\u5185\u5bb9\uff08\u5e7f\u544a\u3001\u5e26\u8d27\uff09\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u53d8\u5316<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6\u6307\u6807<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PMI\uff08\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u6307\u6570\uff09\u3001GDP\u589e\u901f\u3001CPI\u3001\u793e\u878d\u589e\u901f\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7b49\u5b8f\u89c2\u6570\u636e<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6216\u5fae\u89c2\u6d88\u8d39\u6570\u636e\uff1a\u4f8b\u5982\u7f8e\u56e2\u5916\u5356\u3001\u6ef4\u6ef4\u51fa\u884c\u3001\u7535\u5f71\u7968\u623f\u7b49<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7814\u7a76\u5b9e\u8df5<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u963f\u91cc\u3001\u817e\u8baf\u3001\u5b57\u8282\u7b49\u5927\u5382\u5728\u5185\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u548c\u6295\u884c\u66fe\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5982\uff1a \u817e\u8baf\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u66fe\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7528\u201c\u5fae\u4fe1\u6307\u6570\u201d\u8ddf\u8e2a\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u70ed\u5ea6\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002<br>\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7528\u5fae\u535a\u3001\u77e5\u4e4e\u3001\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a<strong>\u53e6\u7c7b\u6570\u636e<\/strong>\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u77ed\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u5efa\u6a21\u53ef\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u53ef\u6784\u5efa\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u5982VAR\u3001LSTM\uff09\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u6570\u636e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684<strong>Granger\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong>\u6216<strong>\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e09\u3001\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8bef\u533a\u6216\u5c40\u9650<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u201c\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u201d\u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u201d<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6709\u4e9b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u884c\u671f\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u53cd\u800c\u66f4\u6d3b\u8dc3\uff08\u5982\u5410\u69fd\u3001\u8d1f\u9762\u8206\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u7b49\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u770b\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u5f15\u5165<strong>\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6837\u672c\u504f\u5dee<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5fae\u4fe1\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u4e0d\u662f\u5f00\u653e\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u6613\u5168\u9762\u6536\u96c6\uff0c\u4e14\u7528\u6237\u5c42\u7ea7\u3001\u5e74\u9f84\u6bb5\u3001\u5730\u533a\u5dee\u5f02\u5927\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5916\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6270\u52a8<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u75ab\u60c5\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u7a81\u53d8\u3001\u70ed\u70b9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7b49\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u5185\u5bb9\u548c\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u77ed\u671f\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u672a\u5fc5\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u56db\u3001\u7ed3\u8bba<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a<\/strong>\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u6d88\u8d39\u578b\u5185\u5bb9\uff08\u65c5\u6e38\u3001\u7f8e\u98df\u3001\u8d2d\u7269\u5206\u4eab\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e7f\u544a\/\u5fae\u5546\u5ba3\u4f20\u9891\u7387<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u60c5\u611f\u8868\u8fbe\uff08\u6b63\u5411 vs \u8d1f\u5411\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u8981\u8bf4\u201c\u5f3a\u76f8\u5173\u201d\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7ed3\u5408<strong>\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7528\u6237\u6570\u636e\u3001\u60c5\u611f\u8bc6\u522b\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21<\/strong>\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u5176\u4ed6\u6270\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6<strong>\uff1a\u5fae\u4fe1\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u3001\u603b\u4f53\u5206\u6790\u601d\u8def<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76ee\u6807\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<strong>\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u6216\u53cd\u6620\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u9886\u5148\u6027\u6216\u6ede\u540e\u6027\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5206\u6790\u6b65\u9aa4\u6982\u89c8\uff1a<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\/\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u9884\u5904\u7406<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5b9a\u4e49\u201c\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u83b7\u53d6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u6307\u6807<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7279\u5f81\u6784\u5efa\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5bf9\u9f50<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u6790\uff08\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u3001\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\uff09<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6a21\u578b\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e0e\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u5c55\u793a<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e8c\u3001\u6570\u636e\u51c6\u5907\u4e0e\u6307\u6807\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u6a21\u62df\/\u91c7\u96c6\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6570\u636e<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u80fd\u63a5\u5165\u4f01\u4e1a\u5fae\u4fe1\u3001\u793e\u7fa4\u6570\u636e\u3001\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u8bc4\u8bba\u6570\u636e\u7b49\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4f5c\u4e3a<strong>\u66ff\u4ee3\u6570\u636e\u6e90<\/strong>\u3002\u5426\u5219\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u5982\u4e0b\u6a21\u62df\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>\u65f6\u95f4\uff08\u5468\uff09<\/th><th>\u53d1\u5e16\u603b\u6570<\/th><th>\u4eba\u5747\u70b9\u8d5e<\/th><th>\u5546\u4e1a\u5e7f\u544a\u8d34\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/th><th>\u8d1f\u9762\u60c5\u7eea\u8d34\u5360\u6bd4<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>2023-W01<\/td><td>12,000<\/td><td>8.4<\/td><td>12%<\/td><td>15%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2023-W02<\/td><td>13,500<\/td><td>9.1<\/td><td>13%<\/td><td>14%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u2026<\/td><td>\u2026<\/td><td>\u2026<\/td><td>\u2026<\/td><td>\u2026<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6a21\u62df\u65b9\u6cd5\u5efa\u8bae\uff1a<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7528Python\u6a21\u62df\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u591a\u4e2a\u201c\u865a\u62df\u7528\u6237\u201d\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u884c\u4e3a\u6570\u636e\uff08\u53ef\u52a0\u5165\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u65e5\u7b49\u5468\u671f\u6270\u52a8\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u60c5\u7eea\u6807\u7b7e\u53ef\u501f\u52a9\u5f00\u6e90\u60c5\u611f\u8bcd\u5178\uff08\u5982BosonNLP\u3001NTUSD\uff09\u7ed3\u5408\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u751f\u6210\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u6587\u672c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\u8bbe\u8ba1<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u7ec4\u5408\u591a\u4e2a\u5b50\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u53d1\u5e16\u9891\u7387\u6307\u6570<\/strong>\uff08\u6bcf\u65e5\/\u6bcf\u5468\u603b\u5e16\u6570\u3001\u4eba\u5747\u53d1\u5e16\u6570\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e92\u52a8\u70ed\u5ea6\u6307\u6570<\/strong>\uff08\u70b9\u8d5e\u3001\u8bc4\u8bba\u6570\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6d88\u8d39\u884c\u4e3a\u6307\u6570<\/strong>\uff08\u51fa\u73b0\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u5982\u201c\u65c5\u6e38\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4e70\u4e70\u4e70\u201d\u3001\u201c\u65b0\u8f66\u201d\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5546\u4e1a\u8d34\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6<\/strong>\uff08\u542b\u5e7f\u544a\u8bcd\u3001\u5e26\u8d27\u94fe\u63a5\u3001\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801\u7b49\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8d1f\u9762\u60c5\u7eea\u6307\u6570<\/strong>\uff08\u60b2\u89c2\u3001\u7126\u8651\u3001\u88c1\u5458\u7b49\u8bcd\u9891\u5360\u6bd4\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570 <code>FriendCircleActivityIndex<\/code>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"804\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6026\" style=\"width:477px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1.png 804w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1-768x306.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 804px) 100vw, 804px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u83b7\u53d6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u6307\u6807<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u63a8\u8350\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>\u6307\u6807\u540d\u79f0<\/th><th>\u6570\u636e\u9891\u7387<\/th><th>\u8bf4\u660e<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PMI\uff08\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570\uff09<\/td><td>\u6708\u5ea6<\/td><td>\u53ef\u53cd\u6620\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\uff08CCI\uff09<\/td><td>\u6708\u5ea6<\/td><td>\u4e2d\u4fe1\u3001\u4ea4\u884c\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u5747\u6709<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GDP\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u7387<\/td><td>\u5b63\u5ea6<\/td><td>\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u6570\u636e<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u793e\u4f1a\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u96f6\u552e\u603b\u989d<\/td><td>\u6708\u5ea6<\/td><td>\u53ef\u4e0e\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d88\u8d39\u7c7b\u8d34\u6587\u5bf9\u6bd4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u7f51\u8054\u652f\u4ed8\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf<\/td><td>\u6bcf\u65e5\/\u5468<\/td><td>\u53ef\u8861\u91cf\u7ebf\u4e0a\u6d88\u8d39\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e09\u3001\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5bf9\u9f50\u4e0e\u53ef\u89c6\u5316<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5bf9\u9f50\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff08\u5982\u5468\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3001\u6708\u5ea6\u5408\u5e76\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7528Python\u7ed8\u56fe\u89c2\u5bdf\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u5982<code>matplotlib<\/code>\u3001<code>seaborn<\/code>\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u6790<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"337\" height=\"84\" src=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6027\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-2.png 337w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-2-300x75.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 337px) 100vw, 337px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6ede\u540e\u671f\u76f8\u5173\uff08cross-correlation\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u89c2\u5bdf\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u9886\u5148\/\u6ede\u540e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u591a\u5c11\u65f6\u95f4\u5355\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u68c0\u9a8c\uff08Granger Causality\uff09<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201c\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u6307\u6807\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\"><code>from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import grangercausalitytests<br>grangercausalitytests(df[['PMI', 'FCAI']], maxlag=4)<br><\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u5efa\u7acb\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u53ef\u9009\uff09<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6570\u636e\u8db3\u591f\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>VAR\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6807\u8d70\u52bf<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>LSTM\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u6d88\u8d39\u70ed\u5ea6\u3001\u652f\u4ed8\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prophet\u5bf9\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u56db\u3001\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u5efa\u8bae<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FCAI vs PMI \u8d70\u52bf\u6298\u7ebf\u56fe<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u4e0e\u60c5\u7eea\u5360\u6bd4\u70ed\u529b\u56fe<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\uff1aFCAI \u4e0e CCI \/ \u96f6\u552e\u603b\u989d \u76f8\u5173\u5206\u5e03<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Granger\u56e0\u679c\u68c0\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u683c\uff08\u663e\u8457\u6027\u6807\u8bb0\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e94\u3001\u53ef\u80fd\u62d3\u5c55\u65b9\u5411<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5f15\u5165\u56fe\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc<\/strong>\u5bf9\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u6269\u6563\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8de8\u5e73\u53f0\u6574\u5408<\/strong>\uff08\u5fae\u535a+\u77e5\u4e4e+\u5c0f\u7ea2\u4e66\u7b49\uff09\u5f62\u6210\u201c\u5168\u7f51\u60c5\u7eea\u6307\u6570\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5f15\u5165\u56fe\u50cf\u8bc6\u522b<\/strong>\u5206\u6790\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u7167\u7247\u4e2d\u201c\u6d88\u8d39\u5c5e\u6027\u201d\uff08\u5982\u5546\u573a\u3001\u9910\u9986\u3001\u5962\u4f88\u54c1\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u603b\u7ed3<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5fae\u4fe1\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u7684\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u5f31\u4fe1\u53f7\u201d\u6216\u201c\u53e6\u7c7b\u6570\u636e\u201d\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u6355\u6349\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5b9a\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff08\u53d1\u5e16\u6570\u3001\u70b9\u8d5e\u3001\u60c5\u7eea\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u5185\u5bb9\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u6790\uff08Granger\u68c0\u9a8c\u3001\u6ede\u540e\u76f8\u5173\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u591a\u6e90\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u6bd4<br>\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u521d\u6b65\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e00\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u4e3a\u4f55\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u5173\uff1f \u4e8c\u3001\u6570\u636e\u89d2\u5ea6\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5efa\u7acb\u201c\u5f3a\u76f8\u5173\u201d\uff1f \u4e09\u3001\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8bef\u533a\u6216\u5c40\u9650 \u56db\u3001\u7ed3\u8bba \u670b\u53cb\u5708 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,2],"tags":[64,54,74],"class_list":["post-6025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tech","category-2","tag-humanity","tag-54","tag-economics"],"rttpg_featured_image_url":null,"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"NullThought","author_link":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?author=1"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?cat=8\" rel=\"category\">Tech<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?cat=2\" rel=\"category\">\u6742\u8c08<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"\u4e00\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u4e3a\u4f55\u53ef\u80fd\u76f8\u5173\uff1f \u4e8c\u3001\u6570\u636e\u89d2\u5ea6\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5efa\u7acb\u201c\u5f3a\u76f8\u5173\u201d\uff1f \u4e09\u3001\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8bef\u533a\u6216\u5c40\u9650 \u56db\u3001\u7ed3\u8bba \u670b\u53cb\u5708&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6025"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6025\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6032,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6025\/revisions\/6032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}