{"id":5602,"date":"2025-02-05T13:26:12","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T05:26:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?p=5602"},"modified":"2025-09-27T13:41:52","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T05:41:52","slug":"timesfm%ef%bc%9a%e8%b7%a8%e9%a2%86%e5%9f%9f%e9%9b%b6%e6%a0%b7%e6%9c%ac%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e7%9a%84%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e5%9f%ba%e7%a1%80%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?p=5602","title":{"rendered":"TimesFM\uff1a\u8de8\u9886\u57df\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u8bba\u6587<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2310.10688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting<\/a><\/strong>\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd<strong>\u89e3\u7801\u5668\u4e13\u7528\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b TimesFM<\/strong>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u7684\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u5177\u5907\u5f3a\u5927\u7684<strong>\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b<\/strong>\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u9ad8\u6548\u9002\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u57fa\u51c6\u4e0a\u53d6\u5f97\u63a5\u8fd1 SOTA \u7684\u6027\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bba\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3aAbhimanyu Das, Weihao Kong, Rajat Sen, Yichen Zhou\uff0c\u6765\u81eaGoogle\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"610\" src=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-1024x610.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5603\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-1024x610.png 1024w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-768x457.png 768w, https:\/\/nullthought.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image.png 1051w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2310.10688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u3001\u5f15\u8a00<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u96f6\u552e\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u5236\u9020\u3001\u533b\u7597\u5065\u5eb7\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u5173\u952e\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4f18\u5316\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u4ea4\u901a\u6d41\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u51e0\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u9010\u6e10\u53d6\u4ee3\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982 ARIMA \u6216 GARCH\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u7406\uff08NLP\uff09\u9886\u57df\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u5982 GPT-3\u3001Llama-2\uff09\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08LLM\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e8e\u751f\u6210\u6587\u672c\u3001\u7ffb\u8bd1\u8bed\u8a00\u3001\u56de\u7b54\u95ee\u9898\u7b49\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f80\u5f80\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\u3002\u8fd9\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<strong>\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u5728\u4ece\u672a\u89c1\u8fc7\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u4e5f\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u63a5\u8fd1\u6700\u4f18\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\uff1f<\/strong> \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u884c\uff0c\u5c06\u6781\u5927\u964d\u4f4e\u4e0b\u6e38\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u548c\u8bad\u7ec3\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd<strong>\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u89e3\u7801\u5668\uff08Decoder-Only\uff09\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b TimesFM<\/strong>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u7684\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\u5b9e\u73b0\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e14\u5176\u6027\u80fd\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u4e13\u95e8\u4e3a\u7279\u5b9a\u4efb\u52a1\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u76d1\u7763\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u57fa\u4e8e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/strong>\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u6570\u636e\uff08\u5982 Google \u641c\u7d22\u8d8b\u52bf\u3001Wikipedia \u9875\u9762\u8bbf\u95ee\u91cf\uff09\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?p=3963\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e<\/a>\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u591a\u6837\u6027\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u57fa\u4e8e Transformer \u89e3\u7801\u5668\u7684\u67b6\u6784<\/strong>\uff0c\u91c7\u7528<strong>\u8f93\u5165\u5206\u5757\uff08patching\uff09<\/strong> \u673a\u5236\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u8bad\u7ec3\u6548\u7387\u548c\u63a8\u7406\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u6700\u65b0\u7684 LLM \u76f4\u63a5\u7528\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5982 TimeGPT-1\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u89c4\u6a21\uff08200M\uff09\u548c\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u89c4\u6a21\uff08100B \u7ea7\u522b\u6570\u636e\u70b9\uff09\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e8c\u3001\u76f8\u5173\u5de5\u4f5c<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\u9010\u6b65\u8d85\u8d8a\u4f20\u7edf\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5c40\u90e8\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5305\u62ec ARIMA\u3001\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u7b49\u4f20\u7edf\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5355\u72ec\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5168\u5c40\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5982 DeepAR\u3001Temporal Convolutional Networks\uff08TCN\uff09\u3001N-BEATS\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u8054\u5408\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u4ec5\u5229\u7528\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5168\u5c40\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u7ecf\u5178\u7684 VAR \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u4e8e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5982 Transformer\u3001Graph Neural Networks\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u65f6\u4f7f\u7528\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u8054\u5408\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u90e8\u5206\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5982 PatchTST \u548c N-BEATS\uff09\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684<strong>\u8de8\u6570\u636e\u96c6<a href=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?p=3335\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8fc1\u79fb\u5b66\u4e60<\/a>\u80fd\u529b<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f46\u81f3\u4eca\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u5b9e\u73b0\u8de8\u591a\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e0a\u7684\u5e94\u7528<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd1\u6765\uff0c\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5229\u7528\u5927\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08LLM\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>TimeGPT-1\uff1a\u4e13\u95e8\u9488\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u516c\u5f00\u5173\u952e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7ec6\u8282\u548c\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u76f4\u63a5\u5fae\u8c03 GPT-3 \u6216 Llama-2\uff1a\u5df2\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b LLM \u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u6548\u679c\u8fdc\u4e0d\u53ca\u4e13\u95e8\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e14\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u578b<strong>\u4ece\u96f6\u5f00\u59cb<\/strong> \u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u9488\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4f18\u5316\uff0c\u5728<strong>\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u6548\u7387<\/strong> \u4e4b\u95f4\u8fbe\u6210\u66f4\u4f18\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e09\u3001\u95ee\u9898\u5b9a\u4e49<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u7528\u7684<strong>\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u63a5\u53d7\u8fc7\u53bb C\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u957f\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765 H\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u957f\u7684\u503c\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>f:(y<sub>1<\/sub>:L)\u2192\u0177L+1:L+H<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u4e2d\uff0cy<sub>1<\/sub>:L\u8868\u793a\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u0177L+1:L+H\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u672a\u6765\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u5728<strong>\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4efb\u52a1\u7279\u5b9a\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b<\/strong>\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e0e\u6700\u4f18\u76d1\u7763\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u5f53\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u56db\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u67b6\u6784<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u7684<strong>TimesFM \u6a21\u578b<\/strong> \u57fa\u4e8e Transformer \u67b6\u6784\uff0c\u91c7\u7528<strong>\u4ec5\u89e3\u7801\u5668\uff08Decoder-Only\uff09<\/strong> \u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e13\u95e8\u4f18\u5316\u3002\u5173\u952e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. <strong>\u8f93\u5165\u5206\u5757\uff08Patching\uff09<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53d7\u5230 NLP \u9886\u57df\u4e2d token \u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u542f\u53d1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u56fa\u5b9a\u957f\u5ea6\u7684<strong>\u975e\u91cd\u53e0\u7247\u6bb5\uff08patches\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e NLP \u4e2d\u7684 token\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u53ef\u4ee5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u63d0\u9ad8\u8bad\u7ec3\u548c\u63a8\u7406\u901f\u5ea6\uff08\u51cf\u5c11 Transformer \u9700\u8981\u5904\u7406\u7684 token \u6570\u91cf\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u957f\u7684\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. <strong>\u4ec5\u89e3\u7801\u5668\uff08Decoder-Only\uff09\u67b6\u6784<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0e PatchTST \u7684\u5168 Transformer \u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528<strong>\u4ec5\u89e3\u7801\u5668\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4ec5\u5229\u7528\u8fc7\u53bb\u65f6\u95f4\u7247\u6bb5\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7247\u6bb5\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5141\u8bb8\u6a21\u578b\u9002\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u957f\u5ea6\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. <strong>\u8f93\u51fa\u7247\u6bb5\u957f\u5ea6\u4f18\u5316<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728 NLP \u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\uff0cLLM \u751f\u6210\u6587\u672c\u65f6\u901a\u5e38\u91c7\u7528<strong>\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u9010\u6b65\u751f\u6210<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0<strong>\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u8f83\u957f\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u6548\u679c\u66f4\u4f18<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8f93\u5165\u7247\u6bb5\u957f\u5ea6\u8f83\u77ed\uff08\u5982 32\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u6355\u6349\u5c40\u90e8\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8f93\u51fa\u7247\u6bb5\u8f83\u957f\uff08\u5982 128\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6b65\u6570\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u957f\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. <strong>\u7247\u6bb5\u63a9\u7801\uff08Patch Masking\uff09<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u56fa\u5b9a\u957f\u5ea6\u7247\u6bb5\u8fdb\u884c\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u80fd\u5b66\u4e60\u5230\u7279\u5b9a\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u65f6\u968f\u673a\u5c4f\u853d\u90e8\u5206\u8f93\u5165\u7247\u6bb5\uff0c\u4f7f\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u9002\u5e94<strong>\u4efb\u610f\u5386\u53f2\u957f\u5ea6<\/strong> \u7684\u8f93\u5165\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e94\u3001\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a<strong>\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/strong>\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Google Trends<\/strong>\uff080.5B \u6570\u636e\u70b9\uff09\uff1a\u6db5\u76d6 22K \u4e2a\u70ed\u95e8\u641c\u7d22\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u8de8\u5ea6 2007-2022\uff0c\u5305\u542b<strong>\u5c0f\u65f6\u3001\u65e5\u3001\u5468\u3001\u6708<\/strong> \u7ea7\u522b\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Wikipedia Pageviews<\/strong>\uff08300B \u6570\u636e\u70b9\uff09\uff1a\u8bb0\u5f55 2012-2023 \u5e74\u6240\u6709\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\u9875\u9762\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee\u91cf\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?p=3963\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e<\/a><\/strong>\uff083M \u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a 2048 \u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\uff09\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e ARMA \u8fc7\u7a0b\u3001\u6b63\u5f26\u66f2\u7ebf\u3001\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d8\u5316\u7b49\u751f\u6210\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5f00\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/strong>\uff1a\u5305\u62ec M4 \u7ade\u8d5b\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u6d41\u91cf\u3001\u7535\u529b\u8d1f\u8377\u3001\u5929\u6c14\u6570\u636e\u7b49\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u65f6\u6309\u7167<strong>80% \u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e + 20% \u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e<\/strong> \u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u6df7\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u516d\u3001\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. <strong>\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5728 3 \u7ec4\u516c\u5f00\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Monash \u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5b58\u6863<\/strong>\uff0830 \u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Darts \u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5<\/strong>\uff088 \u4e2a\u5355\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Informer \u957f\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/strong>\uff08ETT \u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>TimesFM \u7684\u96f6\u6837\u672c\u6027\u80fd\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u6216\u4f18\u4e8e\u4e13\u95e8\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684 SOTA \u76d1\u7763\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728 Monash \u548c Darts \u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0cTimesFM \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7 LLM \u76f4\u63a5\u5fae\u8c03\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5982 llmtime\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u957f\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\uff08\u5982 ETT\uff09\uff0cTimesFM \u53ef\u4e0e\u4e13\u95e8\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u5982 PatchTST\uff09\u5ab2\u7f8e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. <strong>\u6a21\u578b\u6d88\u878d\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u67b6\u6784\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u53c2\u6570\u89c4\u6a21\u589e\u52a0\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u6301\u7eed\u63d0\u5347<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u8f93\u51fa\u7247\u6bb5\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u63d0\u9ad8\u957f\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6027\u80fd<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5f15\u5165\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u7f55\u89c1\u65f6\u95f4\u7c92\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>TimesFM on HuggingFace: <a href=\"https:\/\/huggingface.co\/google\/timesfm-2.0-500m-jax\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/huggingface.co\/google\/timesfm-2.0-500m-jax<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>TimesFM on GitHub: <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/google-research\/timesfm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/github.com\/google-research\/timesfm<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8bba\u6587A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forec [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[39,63,95,69,66],"class_list":{"0":"post-5602","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"hentry","6":"category-tech","7":"tag-ai","9":"tag-transformer","10":"tag-engineering","11":"tag-google"},"rttpg_featured_image_url":null,"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"NullThought","author_link":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?author=1"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/?cat=8\" rel=\"category\">Tech<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"\u8bba\u6587A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forec&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5602","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5602"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5602\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6207,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5602\/revisions\/6207"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nullthought.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}